WHAT IS THE NARRATIVE FALLACY? RELATIONSHIP WITH LUCK - ARTE - 2025

The narrative fallacy is a psychological phenomenon that explains how human beings, innately, tend to form stories and explain facts. This phenomenon is described by Nassim Taleb in his book The Black Swan and Kahneman in Think fast, think slowly.

For example, one day you wear a black shirt and when you go out at night garters. You may call it "your lucky shirt" from then on. However, there are many other factors that can explain your "success."

For example: that the boy / a was desperate, you could have gone to another place and not have flirted, the other person could also have chosen to go to another place…

This also happens with superstition and with the bag. People believe that they can understand the past and predict the future even though we are usually wrong. Think about this: 5 years ago would you have imagined that your life has passed as it has? Would you have predicted something of what has happened to you?

Other facts determined by chance.

• The founders of Google are today among the richest people in the world. However, in their day they had the idea of ​​selling their company for a million dollars, although the buyer did not accept the offer. Today it is among the 10 most valuable companies in the world.
• Hitler had a 50% chance of having been born a girl, not to mention the chances of his sperm reaching the egg. She may also have died many times before and after coming to power. In fact, she went to the First World War and had more than 20 attempted attacks.
• There was a Mallorcan who won 126 million euros with the Euromillions draw.
• A 69-year-old English man found a 15 million dollar Roman treasure while searching for a hammer.

And luckily many things have also happened in your life:

• Your parents may not have met for whatever reason.
• You could have chosen another career.
• One simple decision determined your whole life. And you took it in seconds or undecided.
• You met someone who has influenced you a lot by chance, and chances are good that you didn't.

Of course, not everything in life happens by chance, but many important events happen by chance and cannot be predicted.

Is there luck?

You may be one of the people who believes that everything in life is determined by luck. Or you may be the opposite; you believe that everything depends on our actions, that each one has what they deserve.

You may also be somewhere in the middle, like me. In my opinion, what happens to us in life depends on our beliefs and our way of acting.

Although I also believe that there is chance and therefore, it is possible that positive things happen to you without looking for them, but also negative things.

I believe that if it is possible to attract good luck, although not through spells, spells, potions or prayers. Rather, it's about acting in a way that increases the likelihood of that hit of chance happening to you.

Here I would like to refer to a curious psychological phenomenon:

What can be called luck

I think there are events that can largely be explained by luck, others that do not depend at all on luck and others that depend in part.

It's not luck:

• Pass an exam after 10 hours of studying.
• Be in shape if you train several days a week.
• Speak well in public after rehearsing a lot.

These are luckily:

• You go out for a walk on the beach and you find a gold coin.
• You win the lottery.

And these could be partly because of you and partly luck. These are the most interesting because they are the ones that cannot be predicted although we can intervene in their probability of occurrence, thus resulting in a possible surprise.

• Marta undertakes and becomes a millionaire.
• Dani goes to a convention and meets someone who gives her a good job.
• Sonia to the street and you meet the father / mother of your future children.

In Marta's example, for example, many things could have happened that would not have made her a millionaire. What if she was born in another time without opportunities? What if you had a competitor who died from an unexpected accident? What if you came up with the idea by chance or someone brought it to you?

What is clear is also that if Marta had not taken risks, she would not have become a millionaire. Simply trying, I increased my chances of doing it by thousands compared to someone who never tried anything.

If Dani had not been informed by conventions, have attended her and had the face to talk to people, they would not have hired him. And with each step, her odds increased by the thousands compared to someone watching a soccer game.

If Sonia didn't go out on the street and had stayed watching love series, she wouldn't have met anyone. Just by going out you have a much better chance.

Also remember the unlucky part

A common mistake that occurs from paying too much attention to the media is that we focus on the events and do not think about everything else that has happened.

A millionaire got rich by working 10 years at the same thing. And how many people are there who have worked for 10 years and are poor?

One person was won the lottery at the "black cat" bookmaker. And how many people has it not touched?

How to be lucky: put it in your favor

Much will be chance and you have a good chance that you will not win the lottery.

But think about it this way: the more you do, the more likely something will happen. In life, you can do so many things that if you act, you could get lucky from one moment to the next.

But acting smart:

1-Create social, personal and economic resources (options).

If you have good family relationships, you will not be alone. If you build your self-esteem, you will not "leave to chance" that they can hurt you. If you work for someone and start your own business at the same time, you are less likely to "be unlucky enough to lose your job."

2-Create specific opportunities

The resources I was referring to above are created more in the long term.

With opportunities, it refers to participating in specific events that do not involve a great effort or risk but that can give you a great profit.

For example:

• Cast papers for a scholarship.
• Invest little money (or 5% of what you have) in a company that can become the next Amazon.
• Meet all the people you can in a course. Maybe you know someone who gives you access to other opportunities.

3-persists

Trying once and having no luck is normal. But trying 100 times multiplies the chances of "getting lucky" by 100.

4-Do not risk too much to a single card

Never risk your money, your family, your job or whatever on something that you are not sure of, but that you think you can predict or have a feeling about.

For example, you may think that the Brazil-Germany match is even. You play your only 2000 euros to which they will reach the penalty shootout or that the difference in the end will be less than one goal. However, Germany win 1-7. You would have lost everything.

And do you think there is luck? What do you do to attract her? Have you had a stroke of luck? You can comment below. I'm interested! Thank you.