DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: CHARACTERISTICS AND THEORY - HISTORY - 2025

The demographic transition is a theory that attempts to explain the conversion of a pre-industrialized demographic regime, with high mortality rates, to an industrial regime with a high increase in population as a consequence of the arrival of the Industrial Revolution.

In its beginnings, this theory only sought to account for the demographic changes caused by the Industrial Revolution; however, its use became an important paradigm of 20th century demographic discipline.

In Mexico the birth rate has decreased: Mexican women went from conceiving 5 children to only 2 in their entire lives. Source: pixabay.com

It should be noted that later another stage called postindustrial was included, when the death and birth rates fell significantly.

It is important to add that the theory of demographic transition has been the subject of much criticism, since many experts consider it to be a very limited concept that feeds on some contradictions. This position was defended by important authors such as Dennis Hodgson and Simon Szreter.

Despite the refutations, the demographic transition was aimed at explaining the link between the socio-economic changes and the demographic changes that occurred from the 18th century on in many of the developed countries of Europe. It sought to establish a causal relationship between demographic growth, population and development.

The demographic transition arose thanks to the studies of the demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. During these studies, Thompson noted that a series of changes had occurred in the last 200 years in terms of death and birth rates, changes that corresponded historically with development. of industrialized societies.

Later, the sociologist and demographer Kingsley Davis - creator of the terms "zero growth" and "population explosion" - conceptualized the first model of the demographic transition theory. Decades later it was taken up by Frank Notestein, who focused on the death and birth rates related to economic problems.

Later, authors like Francine Van de Valle and John Knodel came to negative conclusions: there was no direct relationship between the decline in mortality and the decline in birth rates. Furthermore, in countries like Germany, the reduction in marital fertility was not related to infant mortality either because the former occurred before the latter.

characteristics

Being a scientific theory, the demographic transition has a series of very specific characteristics or elements that define it. The most important ones are listed below:

- The demographic transition is characterized by focusing on the changes that occur in the causes of mortality (for example, the emergence of diseases), which maintain a notable influence on specific societies throughout history. It also describes the changes that occur in the structure of these societies.

- It is dedicated to studying only those societies that experienced the Industrial Revolution; therefore, its first approaches were made in European countries and in some regions of North America. Later this theory began to be applied in South America since this region industrialized many years later.

- This theory is based on the belief that the Industrial Revolution modified all areas of man's daily life, transforming the economy, technology and social relations. The demographic transition supports that from this change in the production systems the world population increased and urbanism took place.

- Despite the fact that this theory was established at the beginning of the 20th century, some demographers argue that the demographic transition is characterized by its validity, since currently developing countries are facing the demographic transition. On the other hand, it is considered that developed countries have already completed this process.

- One of the main characteristics of this theory is that it is through a series of stages; These phases denote and list the processes that a society undergoes when engaging with industrial development.

Demographic transition theory

As explained in previous paragraphs, the theory of demographic transition is associated with the phenomenon of the Industrial Revolution since it implied a notable difference in the decrease in mortality and birth rates.

Regarding mortality, this reduction is due to the increase in the urban population and the improvement in the quality of life that occurred thanks to technological development: improvement in food production, more accessible education or more dignified housing, among other aspects.

In relation to the birth rate, this decrease is due to several factors associated with the previous phenomena. For example, increasing urbanization processes simultaneously increases schooling, especially for the female gender.

This means that the birth rate is reduced, since along with industrialization women's liberation is usually developed.

As a result of the demographic transition, there is a temporary adjustment in the mortality and birth rates. This is because in previous decades these were very high; however, with industrialization they became much lower.

In fact, as the years go by, this process does not seem to slow down, but rather accelerates.

Phases

Four specific phases are developed in the demographic transition, which are as follows:

Phase 1

It refers to the first stage, which corresponds to pre-industrial societies. In this period, the death and birth rates are very high, so population growth is slow.

Phase 2

From this moment the transition begins. This phase occurs in developing countries and is characterized by experiencing a reduction in mortality thanks to technical improvements and advances in literacy and medicine. From this moment on, life expectancy begins to extend.

Phase 3

This phase implies the culmination of the demographic transition. It is characterized by the decrease in the birth rate motivated by access to contraceptives, the incorporation of the female sex into the labor market and the path to the “welfare state”.

Phase 4

This period corresponds to the modern demographic regime and was added in later decades. Post-industrial societies are at this stage, where death and birth rates become excessively low. This results in the natural or vegetative growth of the population being almost nil.

Demographic transition in Spain

In the Iberian Peninsula, the demographic transition began in the 20th century thanks to the economic boom resulting from the First World War, which allowed the industrialization process to begin definitively.

This same act of war stopped emigration to Europe; however, internal emigration increased and contributed to the settlement of urban areas.

Despite this, Spain suffered a halt in the demographic transition due to the civil war that developed between 1936 and 1939. With the triumph of fascism with Francisco Franco at the head, millions of people were sentenced to exile and settled in America and in other European countries.

At present it can be established that the demographic transition within the Iberian Peninsula has concluded. Consequently, population growth is practically zero.

Demographic transition in Mexico

Taking into account various sources, it has been possible to establish that Mexico is currently in the full process of demographic transition.

During the seventies, the birth rate began to decline and this is evidenced in the records that have been kept in that country.

Official figures indicate that the average Mexican woman went from having five children to fathering only two during her entire life. If this trend continues, the next figures are likely to establish that Mexican women have only one child on average.

Mortality also underwent important changes: in 1930 life expectancy did not reach 40 years, while today it reaches 75 years.

Demographic transition in Colombia

Like Mexico, Colombia is also in the process of demographic transition.

This phenomenon began in the coastal country in 1985, a time when the decline in fertility and mortality rates began. It is estimated that 2020 will see an increase in aging rates.

Demographic transition in Argentina

Argentina is one of the South American countries with the highest rate of aging. The most recent figures established that 11% of Argentine inhabitants are over 65 years of age, which is broadly linked to the processes of demographic transition.

In addition, the number of children per woman also decreased notably: from 3.15 to 2.65 (that is, up to 16% less). This process has been in the making since 1970, when the inhabitants of Argentina entered the category of aging population.

Demographic transition in Chile

The figures have also been able to establish that Chileans fall into the category of “aging population”, since from 1990 there was an increase in the inhabitants located in the 60-year-old bracket.

Consequently, it can be said that Chile is in an advanced demographic transition along with Argentina. This is because Chile is one of the most industrialized and modernized countries on the entire continent.

In summary, the most developed countries in Latin America are those that suffer from this aging phenomenon. This category includes Uruguay, Chile and Argentina. In contrast, other countries such as Brazil, Costa Rica, Venezuela and Peru are in full demographic transition.

References

1. Castro, A. (1993) Argentina is aging: fewer births are registered each year. Retrieved on July 11, 2019 from La Nación: lanacion.com.ar
2. SA (2011) The demographic transition. Retrieved on July 11, 2019 from Portfolio: portafolio.co
3. SA (sf.) Demographic change in Chile. Retrieved on July 10, 2019 from Gerontology: gerontología.uchile.cl
4. SA (nd) Demographic transition in Mexico. Retrieved on July 11, 2019 from PAOT: paot.org.mx
5. SA (sf) Demographic transition. Retrieved on June 11, 2019 from Wikipedia: es.wikipedia.org
6. SA (sf) Demographic transition. Retrieved on July 11, 2019 from GeoEnciclopedia: geoenciclopedia.com