DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND EXAMPLES - CULTURE VOCABULARY - 2025

The demographic change is the modification of the number or structure of a given human population, due to processes such as mortality, public policy, advances in technology, immigration, emigration, fertility, and others.

This situation is one of the greatest challenges facing the current globalization process, because the average age of populations has increased, while the number of births has decreased. Some countries that stand out for their aging population and low birth rates are Japan and Spain.

This means that the societies of certain countries have experienced a gradual aging that can cause problems in the public policies of the nations. One of them is the management of pensions.

Causes

The causes and consequences of demographic changes are multiple; there is no single cause for long-term demographic change.

For example, in Japan the cause of the aging of the population can be the change of values, little work-family reconciliation and social pressure to be successful at work, while the consequences can be the change of immigration or tax policies.

On the contrary, in Venezuela the causes of the aging of the population could be government policies that cause emigration and the poor economic situation of people who decide to stay, while the consequences would be precisely another change in these policies, adapted to that situation.

Migrations

One of the main reasons why demographic changes are generated in societies is population migration. The average age of the people who make up a state is determined, in part, by the immigration and emigration rates that that nation experiences.

Social conflicts, such as those derived from political persecution, economic crises, or humanitarian problems, are factors that directly influence the migration that a country may experience.

On numerous occasions, the world's populations have had to seek new locations to settle as they tried to escape the crises in their countries of birth.

Part of this situation has made the younger population the one that finds the possibility of emigrating, leaving behind a social group that due to certain limitations do not leave the country, thus increasing the average age of the population and accelerating its aging.

On the other hand, those nations that host the youngest population experience a decline in average age.

Fertility

Cultural factors are a fundamental element when it comes to encouraging the increase in the birth rate of a society, which contributes to the decrease in the average age.

The evolution of lifestyles has generated important changes in the way that new generations see the idea of ​​starting a family and having children. One of the causes is the greater economic effort - housing prices and low salaries - that they must invest in order to support their family nucleus, although others are due to changes in values; greater importance of leisure.

The consideration for a person to decide or not to have children varies according to the locality in which they are and the culture that prevails in the place. While the number of children is legally limited in certain countries with large populations, in others there are no limits to the number of children a person decides to have.

Mortality

On the other hand, advances in technology and improvements in public health conditions have led to a reduction in the mortality rates of the world population.

The invention of drugs, such as penicillin and vaccines, have allowed death rates to drop considerably.

The latter is one of the most important causes of demographic changes. The reduction in mortality rates means that the average age of the population increases immediately, thanks to the cure of certain diseases.

Consequences

Changes in public policies

One of the important consequences that demographic changes usually cause is the change of public policies, due to necessity or discomfort of the population.

For example, an aging country that has few births will need to take steps to deal with this situation. Some of them could be raising taxes to pay pensions, developing technology for elderly care or accepting more immigrants.

On the other hand, Europe has seen the success of various far-right political groups due to the population's discontent with immigration.

Aging of society

The decrease in the birth rate can contribute to the aging of the societies that make up the nations.

By reducing birth rates, the older adult population will grow substantially over the years. In turn, this will increase the dependency rates of these people.

A similar situation generates direct consequences on the public health systems, because this population will require greater care and greater health spending. In addition, there will be an increase in the demand for the pension system.

Demographic changes are a phenomenon that is occurring today. However, the exact consequences of what could happen from such a situation are difficult to determine, since it is a process that is generated internally in each locality.

It is estimated that countries located on the European continent, as well as Japan and the United States, will experience an increase in the average age of the population as a consequence of the decrease in the birth rate in these countries.

An uneven population distribution

Demographic changes occurring in certain countries today could lead to negative consequences. One of them is the poor distribution of the population based on the average age of its members.

It is estimated that, over the next few years, developed countries (such as Japan) or those located in Europe, will experience a representative population decline due to low birth rates and the increase in the average age of society.

On the other hand, there are projections that other nations located in Asia, Africa, and South America will experience population growth; however, it is estimated that in South America the change will be of less impact.

Population aging, as well as rising retirement rates and falling birth rates in some countries, could generate a state of emergency. To solve this, greater pressure would be required to take measures to mitigate the consequences of demographic change.

Positive consequences

Demographic change is occurring throughout the world today, which could have negative consequences for certain societies.

However, it is not a phenomenon that represents a threat in its entirety, since it is considered that changes in the age of the population can also mean advances within societies.

The increase in the average age of people is the direct consequence of the increase in the quality and duration of life that a social group can have in a particular place. This is also the result of improvements in health services and economic improvements, which allow for higher life expectancies.

Despite this, it is important to highlight the importance of finding mechanisms that allow demographic changes to generate the least possible impact on the profile of nations, because such situations of transformation can generate abrupt changes in the structure and functioning of a country. society.

Real examples

Japan

Tokyo

One of the most obvious examples that exist in the world in relation to demographic changes is the case of Japan. The Asian country has undergone a remarkable transformation in the average age of people, which has increased considerably over the years.

In 2008, the average age of that country's population was 43.8 years. Some studies estimate that by 2050, the median population will be approximately 55 years old.

In the same way, it is estimated that by 2025 life expectancy will be 85 years; however, they estimate that there will only be eight births for every 1,000 women: a figure that would mean a drop of one point compared to 2005.

A study found that households that make up Japan have experienced a decline in their purchasing power. This is because the increase in the number of people who require retirement has a negative impact on the capital reserves allocated for this purpose.

Germany

Demographic changes have also had a negative impact on the countries that make up the European continent; one of the most affected is Germany.

In that country, despite experiencing a considerable rate of immigration, it is estimated that the local population will decrease considerably due to the aging of society. Therefore, it is visualized that the number of people who inhabit the country will decrease from 82.4 million to 75 million.

In addition, it is estimated that half of the population that remains in the country will be over 49 years of age and that more than a third will be over 59.

References

1. Population change, English Wikipedia Portal, (nd). Taken from wikipedia.org
2. Demographic transition, English Wikipedia Portal, (nd). Taken from wikipedia.org
3. The Demographic Change, Portal Forética, 2010. Taken from fundacionseres.org
4. Demographic changes in global society, Author: Alcañiz, M. Portal Scielo, 2008. Taken from scielo.org.mx
5. Demographic changes, PWC Global Portal, (nd). Taken from pwc.com
6. Demography, Spanish Wikipedia Portal, (nd). Taken from wikipedia.org